李開復：未來十年物聯網將超人聯網一百倍；我們的設備將知道我們想要什么；大部分工作可被機器取代……

【IT時代網、IT時代周刊編者按】1983 年，李開復正在做一個艱難的決定——到底攻讀哪所大學？可是當他來到卡內基梅隆大學時，看到教授竟然在教機器們說話、聆聽、觀看甚至走路，這一切猶如科幻，也讓他下定了最后的決心。近日，李開復在卡內基梅隆計算機科學學院畢業典禮上發表了演講，回首了自己在這所大學過往的點滴，并預測未來十年“物聯網”將超出“人聯網”一百倍；我們的設備和云將知道我們想要什么；大部分人類工作可被機器取代……以下是李開復演講中英文對照版：

首先向今年的畢業生們表示祝賀!也非常感謝母校邀請我見證并分享你們一生中如此重要的時刻。對于母校在眾多比我優秀的校友中，選擇授予我榮譽博士，我深表榮幸。

我曾在四年半的時間內獲得了我人生的第一個博士學位。而這個即將獲得的第二個博士學位我卻用了長達27年的時間 。你們的課程一定越來越難了!

我還記得1983年第一次走進卡內基梅隆大學時的情形，當時我正在做一個“艱難的決定”——到底攻讀哪所大學? 當時的我就像是首次進入糖果店里的孩子：卡內基梅隆大學的教授當時居然在教機器們說話、聆聽、觀看和走路(其實是單腳跳)。但是真正讓我決定來讀卡梅的是這樣一臺神器：一臺可以聯接到互聯網的可樂機——它居然可以確保源源不斷地供給咖啡因給我們這些極客們!

當時是1983年，這對于我而言就像是科幻。但如今再回首往事，當初這些技術僅僅還處于初期發展的萌芽階段。而32年后的今天，當時的想想和科幻正在一步步變成現實。今天，你們是天選之子，你們這一代人將運用這些技術造福人類。

未來十年，“物聯網”將超出“人聯網”一百倍。如果你仔細想想，你個人可能只有一百個有意義的“物”，這意味著將來幾乎世界上每一件能夠想到的“事物”都會接入互聯網。那么這么一個無所不在的“物聯網”將會被用來增強人類，還是監控人類?細思恐極，而這一切將取決于你們。

未來十年，我們的設備和云將知道我們想要什么，甚至這一切會發生在我們自身意識到這種需求之前。而不是局限在當前的Google Now能告訴我們餐館和交通等信息，它將能告訴我們“我在會議上應該說些什么?”，或者是“我應該怎樣邂逅那位坐在酒吧的女孩?”當計算機助手變得比我們還聰明，我們究竟是被解放，還是被邊緣化?未來的結果取決于你們。

未來十年，大部分人類工作可被機器取代。機器將取代工廠工人、司機、護士、會計、律師助手、教師，或者其他帶“助理”、“代理”或“經紀”等字樣的一系列職位。甚至是部分醫生、律師和教授也將部分地被機器取代。(對不起現場的教授們)這些機器將幫助我們創造世界上的大部分財富，解放我們的時間。我們將變得更具創造性并且找到人類的命運?還是成為這些機器的寵物?這一切也將取決于你們。

你們正是把科幻小說一步步變成工程現實的這一代人。或許，很多畢業典禮演講中都會有這樣的表述“你們是最關鍵的一代人”，但是今天，我認為確實如此!

毋庸置疑，你們選對了學校。在培養計算機科學家或工程師方面，沒有哪一所大學比卡內基梅隆大學更出色，這也是這所學校畢業生的薪水雄冠全球的原因。我曾在蘋果、谷歌和微軟工作時雇傭很多學校的畢業生，我可以坦誠的告訴大家：你們，卡內基梅隆大學的畢業生，你們是最好的，沒有之一!

此時你可能會認為成功將唾手可得，因為你們從最好的大學畢業，即將進入最令人興奮的領域，尤其是在你們年富力強的人生階段。

李開復被授予卡內基梅隆大學榮譽商業管理博士學位

沒錯，你們能力的確強大，但不要忘記一句偉大的哲學家……哦，是蜘蛛俠(Spiderman)的那句名言：“能力越強，責任越大”。

你們有責任把時間花在那些真正困難的問題上。而不要把時間浪費在機器未來能做的事情上，也不要把才華浪費在重復學校所學的基礎知識，更不要接受一份沒有挑戰的工作。勇于冒險，孜孜以求，以“成為某個特殊又有用領域的最頂尖人才”為目標，為己任。

你們有責任做出明智選擇。在技術的選擇上，要致力于能把世界變得更美好的技術，而不能僅僅局限于先進或很酷。在工作的選擇上，要選擇能拯救生命的工作，而不是破壞生命的工作;要選擇強化人類的工作，而不是取代人類的工作。選老板時，要選擇有大愛之人，而不是貪婪小人;要選擇想幫助世界的善人，而不是想征服世界的戾氣之人。

你們有責任預見和阻止技術成為傷害人類的武器，防止科幻小說中常見的悲劇結局發生。尼克·伯斯托姆(Nick Bostrom)在《超級智能》(Superintelligence)一書中稱，“隨著機器越來越智能，任何沾沾自喜都是不合時宜的。作為技術專家，你將面臨一次有史以來最艱難的考試。你必須保持戰戰兢兢的最佳狀態進入考場。考試過關則實現人類夢想，考試失敗則毀滅人類未來。”

最后，我想用亞瑟·克拉克(Arthur Clarke，英國科幻小說家)說過的一句話，也是我最喜歡的科幻名言來結束這次演講：任何真正的高科技都與魔法無異。

2015屆的畢業生，祝賀你們，你們將夢想成真，開創魔法般的絢爛未來!謝謝!

From Science Fiction to Engineering Reality

Kai-Fu Lee

May 17, 2015

Commencement speech delivered at CMU School of Computer Science

First, congratulations to the graduates form the CMU School of Computer Science! I'm deeply honored and grateful that you have invited me to be a part of this seminal moment in your lives. I’m honored and humbled that among many more accomplished SCS graduates, I was chosen to receive an honorary degree this year.

I received my first Ph.D. in four and a half years. This second Ph.D. took 27 years. This program must be getting a lot tougher!

I remember coming to CMU for the first time in 1983, when I was trying to decide what grad school to go to.I was like a kid in the candy store. CMU researchers were teaching machines to talk, listen, see, and walk … I mean hop. And I decided to attend CMU after I saw the machine of my dreams: a coke machine connected to the Internet, to ensure that we had an infinite supply of caffeine.

In 1983, this all seemed like science fiction to me. But now looking back, those technologies were just in their infancy. In 2015, 32 years later today, science fiction is about to become engineering reality. And you are the chosen ones to use them to make the world a better place.

In the next 10 years,the Internet of things will outnumber the Internet of people by two orders of magnitude. If you think about it, you probably only own a hundred meaningful things. So that means virtually every thinkable thing will be connected to the Internet. Will they be used as human amplification or human surveillance? That will be up to you.

In the next 10 years, our devices and the cloud will usually know what we want before we know it, and better than we know it. Not just Google Now telling you about restaurant and transportation. But also questions like "What should I say at the meeting?" or "How should I approach this girl at the bar?” With computer assistants getting smarter than us, will we be liberated or marginalized? That will be up to you.

In the next 10 years, most human jobs will be doable by machines. Machines will replace factory workers, drivers, nurses, accountants, any job that has the word "assistant" or "agent" or "broker" in it. And even some doctors, lawyers, and professors will be partially replaced by machines. (sorry professors sitting behind me) These machines will help us produce most of the world's wealth, freeing much of our time. Will we become creative and find mankind’s destiny, or become mindless pets of these machines? That will be up to you.

You are the generation that will make science fiction into engineering reality. Many commencement speech talks about "you are the generation that matters…". But in your case, it is true!

And undoubtedly, you've chosen the right school. There is no better school than CMU to train you to be a computer scientist or engineer. That's why this school's graduates are the highest paid graduates on the planet. I've hired for Apple, Google, MS — I can tell you: you, the CMU graduates, are not "one of the best". You are THE best.

So you might think you've got it made! You are graduating from the best school, and entering the most exciting field, at a time when you possess the power of youth and productivity.

Yes you have the power. But please remember what the world's greatest philosopher … Spiderman said: "with great power comes great responsibility."

You have a responsibility to work on the hard problems. Don't waste your time doing what machines will be able to do. Don't waste your talent repeating just what you learned at school. Don’t accept a job that doesn’t challenge you. Take risks and vigorously learn, so that you can become the very best in something very specific and very useful.

You have a responsibility to choose wisely. Don't just work on technologies that are advanced and cool, work on technologies make the world a better place. Choose jobs that save lives, not destroy them. Choose jobs that empower people, not displace them. Choose to work for CEOs who has more compassion than greed, who cares more about world peace than world domination.

You have a responsibility to foresee and prevent the dangers of technology and prevent the dystopian endings often found in science fiction. Nick Bostrom said in his book "Superintelligence", "As machines gain superintelligence, any feeling of gee-whiz exhilaration would be out of place. You need to have a bitter determination to be the best that you can be, much as you are preparing for a difficult exam that will either realize your dreams or obliterate them."

I want to close with my favorite science fiction quote from Arthur Clarke: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Graduates: Congratulations, you will realize your dreams, and make magic happen! Thank you!

【IT時代網、IT時代周刊編后】每個手機都有事件提醒功能，當人類自己還沒想到自己的這個需求時，設備已經事先替你想到了，當設備越來越智能，肯定會提高人們的辦事效率，但一些問題也會隨之而來，關于人工智能的迅猛發展會不會危及到人類社會安全已經引發了業內很多討論，未來的發展也是眾說紛紜，但無論如何希望最終不要像電影《機械姬》里那個百萬富翁一樣，最后卻被自己一手創造的人工智能機器人所殺。【責任編輯/鄭希】

來源：創新工場

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